Caught in the Middle: U.S. Senators try to pull TikTok’s strings in public, but the ultimate control still rests in China’s hands.
Where TikTok Stands Now
The White House has released details of the agreement shaping TikTok’s future in the U.S.:
A new board of seven directors, six of them American.
All U.S. data is stored by Oracle.
Recommendation algorithm rebuilt from scratch in the U.S., retrained only on American data.
U.S. investors were expected to hold 80% of the new company, while Chinese shareholders were expected to hold 20%.
On paper, TikTok remains in the U.S. In practice, the app is being rebuilt. Data and algorithms—the real core—are no longer under ByteDance’s direct control. Yet questions remain about enforcement, oversight, and whether China retains indirect influence.
Politics: Fighting Without Breaking
This deal is more than business—it reflects the U.S.-China rivalry:
U.S. logic: Control data and algorithms so Beijing cannot shape public opinion or elections.
China’s logic: Compromise where possible, but retain some symbolic or technical hold on the algorithm.
The most controversial move: retraining the algorithm inside the U.S., cut off from overseas engineers. This creates a U.S.-only platform. But it raises new risks: if retraining happens under Trump’s administration, will the algorithm tilt toward his politics? With 170 million U.S. users, control of TikTok could shift from cultural entertainment to a political tool.
This is “fighting without breaking”: both sides maintain ties, but the U.S. seeks full control while China clings to influence.
What Led to the Forced Sale of TikTok
The road to TikTok’s forced sale was long and dramatic, shaped by legal, political, and cultural battles:
National Security Argument: The U.S. framed TikTok as a threat, claiming Beijing could access data on 170M Americans or weaponize the algorithm for propaganda.
First Amendment Clash: TikTok argued the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act violated free speech. The case went all the way to the Supreme Court.
Supreme Court Ruling: Unlike the Pentagon Papers case in 1971, where prior restraint was rejected, the Court sided with the government in TikTok v. Garland (2025), ruling national security justified the restriction.
Key Timeline Events:
July 2020: Trump threatened a ban unless TikTok was sold to a U.S. buyer.
2023: TikTok banned on U.S. government devices; CEO grilled in Congress.
April 2024: Biden signed the Act mandating divestiture or ban.
Jan 2025: Supreme Court upheld the ban; Trump delayed enforcement, keeping the app alive under negotiation.
Business Map: U.S. Stagnation, Southeast Asia Growth
TikTok’s business story differs by region:
United States
2024 GMV: $8.5B (vs. $15.5B target).
2025 GMV target cut from $25B → $18B.
Weakness driven by high tariffs, strong Amazon dominance, cultural preference for search-based shopping, lack of logistics, and regulatory uncertainty.
Live-stream shopping has not taken off; merchants hesitate to commit.
Southeast Asia
2024 GMV: $34B, ~75% of TikTok’s global total.
2025 GMV target raised to $65B+.
Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand show explosive growth in live-stream commerce.
Sellers, influencers, and buyers form a self-sustaining ecosystem, making TikTok a real rival to Shopee and Alibaba.
The split is clear: in the U.S., TikTok is a political pawn. In Southeast Asia, it’s a thriving commerce giant.
Market Impact Analysis
Winners
Oracle & U.S. Cloud Providers – Control of U.S. data bolsters credibility and market share. Investors may want to keep a close eye on Oracle, as its role in both AI and TikTok could create short-term stock upside opportunities.
American Investors & Board Members – 80% stake offers both governance power and financial upside.
Meta, YouTube Shorts, Snapchat – Could gain share during TikTok’s U.S. restructuring.
Losers
ByteDance – Potential loss of TikTok’s U.S. unit weakens its global standing.
U.S. TikTok Creators & Advertisers – Risk short-term uncertainty if algorithm shifts reduce visibility or engagement.
Chinese Tech Ecosystem – A precedent that strengthens global regulatory scrutiny of Chinese apps.
Wild Cards
Valuation Swings – TikTok U.S. could thrive as an “independent American brand” or falter if seen as politically manipulated.
Global Precedent – Other nations may demand similar algorithmic sovereignty, fragmenting global social media.
Regulatory Spillover – Could fuel broader rules around AI transparency, content moderation, and digital sovereignty.
Closing Takeaway
TikTok’s story is no longer just about business. It is about politics, sovereignty, and the future of global tech governance. In the U.S., TikTok risks becoming a political instrument rather than a cultural hub. In Southeast Asia, it is rapidly evolving into a dominant e-commerce ecosystem. The company’s split path reflects a larger truth: globalization is fracturing into parallel systems. TikTok is not just one firm’s struggle—it is a signal of a world being redrawn.