In partnership with
Easy setup, easy money
Making money from your content shouldn’t be complicated. With Google AdSense, it isn’t.
Automatic ad placement and optimization ensure the highest-paying, most relevant ads appear on your site. And it literally takes just seconds to set up.
That’s why WikiHow, the world’s most popular how-to site, keeps it simple with Google AdSense: “All you do is drop a little code on your website and Google AdSense immediately starts working.”
The TL;DR? You focus on creating. Google AdSense handles the rest.
Start earning the easy way with AdSense.
Something big might be brewing for early 2026. We could be looking at the largest tax refund season in American history. And if history is any guide, a flood of cash hitting people's bank accounts tends to find its way into the stock market.
The Numbers We're Talking About
President Trump has declared that next spring will be historic for tax refunds. Independent analysts are backing this up with hard data: projections suggest $100 to $150 billion more in refunds than last year. Some estimates go as high as $500 billion flowing back to individuals and companies.
To put this in perspective: during COVID stimulus, roughly $100 billion of distributed funds went straight into stocks. The result? The NASDAQ surged 49% in 2020. Now imagine multiples of that amount hitting the market.
What's Driving This?
The catalyst is the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," signed on July 4th. This legislation made massive tax cuts retroactive for the 2025 tax year. Here's what changed:
Standard deductions increased: $750 more for singles, $1,500 more for couples
Child tax credit jumped: Up $200 per child
SALT deduction cap raised: $30,000 increase for those earning under $500,000
New deductions added: $6,000 for seniors (65+), $10,000 for auto loan interest, $25,000 for tip income, and $125,000 for overtime pay
The "Refund Time Bomb" Explained
Here's where it gets interesting. The IRS never adjusted their withholding tables after the bill passed in July. What does that mean? American workers have been overpaying their taxes for the entire year based on the old rules.
When people file their 2025 returns in early 2026, all that overpaid money comes back in one massive lump sum. Think of it like a dam holding back water all year, then suddenly opening the gates.
Who Benefits Most (And Why It Matters for Markets)
These refunds won't be spread evenly. Middle and upper-income households (the top 20%) stand to gain the most, with average tax cuts of about $2,300. Here's the key insight: these households typically have their basic needs covered. Extra cash often goes into investments rather than immediate spending. More money flowing into brokerage accounts means more buying pressure on stocks.
Investment Ideas to Watch
Timing: The strongest market impact is expected in February and March 2026, right when most refunds hit bank accounts.
Areas of interest mentioned:
Big Tech: Names like Nvidia, Amazon, and Google appear relatively cheap based on historical valuation multiples
Broad Exposure: QQQ (NASDAQ 100 ETF) offers a lower-risk way to capture a potential rally without picking individual winners
Growth Themes: AI, robotics, and high-recognition stocks like Palantir or Tesla could attract retail investor attention
A Word on Risk
We emphasize risk management: use stop-losses and keep speculative plays to a maximum of 5-10% of your investable capital. COVID-era "stay-at-home" stocks probably won't repeat the same performance. Different conditions, different winners.
The Simple Analogy
Think of the U.S. economy as a reservoir. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was a heavy rain that the dam (IRS withholding system) didn't account for. Now, as tax season opens the gates in early 2026, all that backed-up water rushes out at once—potentially raising the water level in the "Stock Market Lake" downstream.
Bottom Line
If these projections play out, February-March 2026 could see a significant cash injection into markets. The playbook? Position in quality names before the wave hits, manage your risk, and don't bet the farm on any single trade.
This isn't a guarantee—it's a thesis worth watching. We'll keep tracking the data as it develops.
That's all for today. See you tomorrow.
—Alex, Trade the Times