Silver Just Broke Every Record — And Something Big Is Unfolding

On December 6, 2025, silver quietly made history. The metal surged past $59 per ounce, breaking every price record it has ever set. It is now up nearly 100% for the year, making 2025 one of the strongest years for silver since the legendary run-up of 1980.

But the price alone isn’t what caught my attention.While silver was climbing, reports surfaced that JP Morgan moved roughly 169 million ounces of physical silver into its vaults. Industry estimates suggest this may equal roughly 9% of global supply — accumulated patiently over 14 years, starting around 2011.

That raised one simple question for me:If silver “doesn’t matter” the way many experts claim… why would America’s most powerful bank be hoarding it?

To answer that, I went deep into history. After studying every major financial breakdown I could find, I discovered something striking: they all follow the same pattern — four predictable stages. What worried me most is that silver now appears to be entering the final stage of that cycle. Let me explain.

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In the first stage, the system creates an illusion of stability. Prices are kept calm. Markets are flooded with paper promises instead of real goods. Volatility is discouraged. Confidence looks high.

For silver, this stage began after the Hunt Brothers episode in 1980, when their attempted market squeeze caused panic across regulators. In response, officials built an enormous paper trading system that allowed silver to be traded far beyond the amount of physical metal that existed.

Today, analysts estimate that the paper silver market — futures contracts, derivatives, and promises — may be 50 times larger than the physical silver market. COMEX data adds another stunning number: Open interest equals about 244% of all silver stored in registered vaults.

In simple words, there are more paper claims on silver than actual silver available for delivery. If even half of contract holders demanded the real metal instead of cash settlement, the system could come under serious strain. Yet for many years… everything looked fine.

Stage two is when distortions start growing quietly. Debt rises. Money printing accelerates. Paper assets multiply. Prices stay strangely calm anyway.

Silver has lived in Stage Two since 2008. Following the financial crisis, global central banks printed over $30 trillion. The US Federal Reserve alone expanded its balance sheet by roughly $8 trillion. Normally, that kind of money creation should have caused silver to explode in price. It didn’t. Why?

Because when physical demand began to increase, major banks reportedly responded with massive increases in paper short positions — using derivatives and futures contracts to hold prices down artificially. As a result, silver remained pinned under $30 per ounce for nearly a decade. But something powerful was changing underneath the surface.

Silver is no longer just “money metal.” It is now mission-critical for:

Industry reports show that 59% of all silver today goes to industrial use, compared to only 40% a decade ago. Meanwhile, mine supply fell. Global silver production is estimated to be down about 7% since 2016. For seven straight years, the world has consumed more silver than has been mined. That missing supply came from above-ground stockpiles — vaults and reserves accumulated over decades. Those caches are now being drained.

India has imported record volumes. China has been steadily accumulating metal. Yet paper prices barely moved… until this year.

Here’s where things become truly fascinating.

Market researchers estimate that since 2011, JP Morgan has accumulated around 675 million ounces of physical silver — potentially 45% of the world’s known investment-grade supply.

For context:

Why would they quietly corner the silver market? After absorbing Bear Stearns during the 2008 crisis, JP Morgan inherited massive silver short positions. They were on the wrong side of the trade. Later, in 2010, the bank paid roughly $200 million in fines for metals manipulation charges. Market watchers believe JP Morgan flipped its strategy — covering its shorts and going massively long in physical silver instead.

COMEX vault data now shows they hold about 169 million ounces in registered inventory alone, roughly 40% of total exchange supply. At the same time, the gap between paper promises and physical reality has never been wider.

The third stage is when something snaps. Liquidity vanishes. Paper claims wobble.
Everyone wants the real thing — not the promise.

I believe Stage Three is unfolding right now. On November 28, 2025, the CME — the world’s largest derivatives exchange — suffered a 10-hour outage due to a cooling-system failure. During that glitch, silver spiked to $56.72, setting a record intraday high. When trading resumed, bid-ask spreads exceeded $1 per ounce — an enormous spread for this market.

That kind of chaos is a symptom of paper market stress. Just days later, filings showed that JP Morgan reclassified 13.4 million ounces from “registered” silver to “eligible.” Registered silver is deliverable against futures contracts.
Eligible silver is not available for delivery.

In other words: During peak physical demand, JP Morgan quietly removed nearly 9% of the available supply from the delivery pool.

Then came another warning sign. In October, silver lease rates soared to 30% annualized — meaning institutions were willing to pay 30% interest just to borrow physical silver. That simply does not happen in calm markets.

This final stage is when prices explode. Short sellers are squeezed. Physical holders win. Late buyers scramble.

This stage played out in 1979–1980 with the Hunt Brothers. They bought nearly 200 million ounces while silver traded around $6 per ounce. Inflation surged. Supplies tightened.

By January 1980, silver hit $49.45 — an 800% gain in 18 months. Regulators stepped in, banning new long positions and forcing liquidation. The Hunts were destroyed…but the squeeze itself was real. Adjusted for inflation, that $49 high equals about $170 per ounce today. We’re now at $59 — with even worse mining deficits, higher industrial demand, and a paper system far larger than at any time in history.

Historically, silver trades around 15:1 to gold. Today the ratio stands closer to 72:1 — one of the widest gaps in modern history. Gold currently trades around $4,212 per ounce. Even mild normalization of that ratio points toward triple-digit silver prices.

Some analysts forecast $75–$90 by 2026 purely on fundamentals.
Ratio reversion implies possible targets much higher — $150 to $200+ — though nothing is guaranteed.

On December 9–10, the Federal Reserve meets to decide on interest rates. Markets currently price an 87% probability of rate cuts.

Historically:

Silver is the symptom. The real issue is the dollar itself. Since 1971, the dollar has been backed only by trust — not by gold or hard assets. After decades of deficits, money creation, and hidden inflation, that confidence has started to waver.

Gold above $4,200.
Silver at record highs.
Surging energy prices.
Institutions shifting into real assets.

All of these are signals pointing toward the same conclusion: Scarcity is reasserting itself. And silver, perhaps more than any other major asset, appears deeply undervalued relative to its importance.

Silver broke a 45-year record this week.

Physical silver is still available, but dealer premiums are rising and delivery delays are growing more common — a familiar pattern seen during 2020’s COVID panic, when $28 silver sold for $45 physical. If shortages deepen again, premiums of 30–60% above spot are very possible.

Do you think silver breaks $100 in 2026?
Share your thoughts and follow along as we continue tracking what may become one of the most important financial stories of 2025 and beyond.

— Trade The Times